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Global & Regional Trends


Examine global and regional/continental trends in family size, sex ratios, and ageing/greying

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Global & Regional Trends


Examine global and regional/continental trends in family size, sex ratios, and ageing/greying

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Today we are going to be exploring global and regional trends in family size, sex ratio and ageing. Make some predictions about how global and regional data might vary for these three topics.

 

EXPLORING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS

  1. Use the slider on the maps below to view how global patterns have changed over time.

  2. Choose a before and after time for each map and take a screenshot of the differences

  3. Import these into a document and describe the changes observed (include data and continents/continental regions)

  4. Explain these changes using information from below the charts

Family Size (Fertility Rate)

The global average fertility rate is just below 2.5 children per woman today. Over the last 50 years the global fertility rate has halved. And over the course of the modernisation of societies the number of children per woman decreases very substantially. In the pre-modern era fertility rates of 4.5 to 7 children per woman were common. At that time the very high mortality at a young age kept population growth low. As health improves and the mortality in the population decreases we typically saw accelerated population growth. This rapid population growth then comes to an end as the fertility rate declines and approaches 2 children per woman. (Source)

 

Sex Ratios

Expected' sex ratio at birth is not completely equal: under ordinary circumstances we would expect there to be slightly more boys born than girls. This means that in all countries, births are male-biased. The expected sex ratio is approximately 105 boys born per 100 girls. This is the 'natural' sex ratio reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). There can be some variability in this expected ratio, ranging from around 102 to 107 boys per 100 girls. Having a male-biased sex ratio at birth therefore doesn't necessarily represent gender discrimination, although much more skewed ratios (above 107 boys per 100 girls) does suggest the use of gender selection practices.

In countries where there is a clear imbalance in sex ratio, there's preference for a boy. But why does this preference exist?

Son preference is most common in countries across East and South Asia, but also in some countries in the Middle East and North Africa.74 Although there are significant cultural, economic and societal differences between these countries there are important parallels which explain strong preference for a boy.

What these countries tend to have in common is a strong logic of 'patrilineality': the logic that productive assets move through the male line within the family.75 Although many other countries also have patrilineality to some degree, in countries with a strong preference for a son, researchers find this logic to be much more rigid. The social order of families resides with the males: lineage is passed from father to son. Men within the social order are the fixed points, and women the moving points: when a daughter marries, she leaves the current family to join a new one. (Source)

 

Ageing/Greying

The timing of this ageing transition varies significantly between countries – in higher income countries with low fertility rates and longer life expectancies, it has been shifting for decades. In the United States, under-5s were outnumbered by those aged 65+ as early as 1966. In Spain it was 1970; in South Korea it was 2000.

For many countries, this crossover point is still to come. In India, it's projected to be 2028. In South Africa, it's 2036. In low-income countries with high fertility rates and lower life expectancy this point is still many decades away: it's projected that in Nigeria, under-5s will outnumber 65+ year olds until 2087.

But overall, we see that collectively, as well as in all countries, we are moving towards an ageing world. The number of children under 5 years old is projected to peak and plateau for most of the 21st century; the numbers under 15 and 25 years old will follow. Meanwhile the number of people aged 25-64, and especially those aged 65+ years will continue to grow. By the 2070s it's projected that the number of 65+ year olds in the world will outnumber those younger than 15.

 
 
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Policies Managing Population


Policies associated with managing population change, focusing on: ageing societies, pro/anti-natalist, gender equality and anti-trafficking

Policies Managing Population


Policies associated with managing population change, focusing on: ageing societies, pro/anti-natalist, gender equality and anti-trafficking

AGEING SOCIETIES POLICY

The USA has a similar level of economic development to Europe, yet its median age remains relatively low compared to Europe. Why might this be?

Figure 1. Median age in Europe 1960-2060

Figure 2. Median age in the Americas 1960-2060

 
 

POLICIES MANAGING AGEING POPULATIONS

Generally, ageing populations require governments to:

  • Raise taxes

  • Increase retirement age

  • Reduce spending on other social welfare programmes

  • Increase care for old people’s homes

Ageing societies are caused primarily by two things:

  1. Increased life expectancy (people living longer)

  2. Decreasing birth rates (fewer babies being born)

 
 

POLICY TO INCREASE FERTILITY IN JAPAN

POLICY TO CARE FOR ELDERLY IN JAPAN

DISCUSSION QUESTION

To what extent have Japan’s ageing policies been a success?

 
 

PRO AND ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES

How can governments encourage people to have more or less children? Suggest three ideas for each.

 
 
 

PRO-NATALIST POLICY EXAMPLES

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Russia's birth rate has been declining for decades: the population fell from 149m in 1991 to 140m in 2018, and the median age has risen from 33 to 39. So, to help the poorest families, in March 2018 the government announced monthly payments of 10-11,000 roubles (£118-£130; $152-$167) until their first child reached 18 months old. A poor family also gets a one-off payment of 300,000 roubles for each additional child born.

Serbia, one of Hungary's neighbours, has one of the world's fastest-shrinking populations. It has seven million people and a median age of 43. Last March it announced that new mothers would get a one-off payment worth £740 ($956) for their first child, monthly payments of £74 ($96) for the second child for two years, and further payments for three or more children.

The birth rate in Italy is among Europe's lowest, along with Cyprus and Spain. Italy gives mothers an allowance of €80 per month (£70; $90) for each child born. The poorest families get a monthly allowance of €160 per child.

In Germany more babies were born in 2016 than in any year since 1996. But Germany has also put more incentives in place for couples to have children. Parents have a legal right to a nursery place once their child is one year old. Germany has a new law, the "Good KiTa Act", granting lower childcare fees for parents who cannot afford the full price, and a fee exemption for parents who receive a child allowance and housing benefits. (Source)

 

FRANCE’S PRO-NATALIST POLICY (Source)

In 1939, the French passed the “Code de la famille”, a complex piece of pro-natalist legislation. The pro-natalist methods in the policy included:

  • Offering cash incentives to mothers who stayed at home to care for children.

  • Subsidising holidays.

  • Banning the sale of contraceptives (repealed in 1967).

Incentives offered in the policy included:

  • Payment of up to £1064 to couples having their third child.

  • Generous maternity grants.

  • Family allowances to increase the purchasing power of three child families.

  • Maternity leave on near full pay for 20 weeks for the first child to 40 weeks or more for the third child.

  • 100% mortgage and preferential treatment in the allocation of three bedroom council flats.

  • Full tax benefits to parents until the youngest child reaches 18.

  • 30% fare reduction on all public transport for three child families.

  • Pension schemes for mothers/housewives.

  • Child-orientated development policies e.g. provisioning of creches, day nurseries etc.

  • Depending on the family’s income, childcare costs from virtually nothing to around €500 a month for the most well off of families.

  • Nursing mothers are encourage to work part-time or take a weekly day off work.

 

ANTI-NATALIST POLICY IN CHINA

 
 

GENDER EQUALITY POLICIES 

 

GENDER EQUALITY POLICY IN ICELAND

GENDER EQUALITY LAW IN SWE & FRA

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ANTI-TRAFFICKING POLICIES

TASK: Define and briefly outline the scale of human trafficking globally

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INTERNATIONAL TRAFFICKING POLICY

Trafficking in persons is a serious crime and a grave violation of human rights. Every year, thousands of men, women and children fall into the hands of traffickers, in their own countries and abroad. Almost every country in the world is affected by trafficking, whether as a country of origin, transit or destination for victims. UNODC, as guardian of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) and the Protocols thereto, assists States in their efforts to implement the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons (Trafficking in Persons Protocol). (Source)

The Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and Children, was adopted by General Assembly resolution 55/25. It entered into force on 25 December 2003. It is the first global legally binding instrument with an agreed definition on trafficking in persons.

The intention behind this definition is to facilitate convergence in national approaches with regard to the establishment of domestic criminal offences that would support efficient international cooperation in investigating and prosecuting trafficking in persons cases. An additional objective of the Protocol is to protect and assist the victims of trafficking in persons with full respect for their human rights. (Source)

 

NATIONAL TRAFFICKING POLICY - THE MODERN SLAVERY ACT, UK

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The Modern Slavery Act 2015 is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It is designed to combat modern slavery in the UK and consolidates previous offences relating to trafficking and slavery. The act extends to England and Wales and contains a number of provisions:

  • The consolidation of the existing slavery and trafficking offences

  • The introduction of two new civil orders to enable the courts to place restrictions on those convicted of modern slavery offences, or those involved in such offences but not yet convicted

  • The establishment of an independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner to encourage good practice on the prevention of modern slavery offences and the identification of victims.

  • The provision of mechanisms for seizing traffickers’ assets and channelling some of that money towards victims for compensation payments

  • The creation of a new statutory defence for slavery or trafficking victims compelled to commit criminal offences

  • The provision of child trafficking advocates

 
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Demographic Dividend


Describe the demographic dividend and examine the ways in which population could be considered a resource when contemplating possible futures

Demographic Dividend


Describe the demographic dividend and examine the ways in which population could be considered a resource when contemplating possible futures

Identify and note the issues covered in this video.

 
 

case study: cambodia's youthful population

  • 2 thirds of Cambodia's 15 milion population are under the age of 30

  • This represents a potential demographic dividend that could lead to economic growth and social transformation

  • Policies and strategies are needed to give young people access to quality education and jobs, to upgrade their skills and to provide youth-friendly healthcare services

  • Failure to do so will turn this dividend into an unbearable and lasting economic and social cost.

 

Figure 1. Population pyramid for Cambodia (Source)

Figure 2. Youth policy fact sheet for Cambodia (Click to open)

 
 
 
 

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

 

COUNTRIES IN THE EARLY STAGE OF DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Figure 3. Countries in the early stages of demographic dividend ( Source )

Figure 3. Countries in the early stages of demographic dividend (Source)

 
 
Figure 4. Challenges and opportunities for youth in Cambodia

Figure 4. Challenges and opportunities for youth in Cambodia

Figure 5. Article explaining the importance of DD in Cambodia

Figure 5. Article explaining the importance of DD in Cambodia

Figure 6. Family planning promotion poster in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Figure 6. Family planning promotion poster in Phnom Penh, Cambodia